The Post-American World: Release 2.0 – by Fareed Zakaria

By ABC's Sara Phillips
Posted Fri Feb 8, 2013 3:35pm AEDT

As fracking allows the US to tap into its own energy resources, the global politics which has historically been heavily influenced by oil supplies will be dramatically altered, writes Sara Phillips.
A rough estimate from Brown University of the cost to the American people of the "War on Terror" is a staggering $US4 trillion.

The war, nominally against radical Islamic ideology, is also widely seen as the US attempting to gain a strategic foothold in the oil-rich Persian Gulf. With a price tag of $4 trillion, it was clearly a much-valued foothold for the superpower.
Thomas Friedman, in his book Hot, Flat, and Crowded laments the time, money and energy spent securing this precarious perch in the tumultuous Middle East in the name of oil.

Our oil addition is not just changing the climate system; it is also changing the international system...
 First, and most important, through our energy purchases we are helping to strengthen the most intolerant, anti-modern, anti-Western, anti-women's rights, and antipluralistic strain of Islam - the strain propagated by Saudi Arabia.
Second, our oil addition is helping to finance a reversal of the democratic trends in Russia, Latin American, and elsewhere that were set in motion by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of Communism...I call this phenomenon 'the First Law of Petropolitics': As the price of oil goes up, the pace of freedom goes down...

However German magazine Der Spiegel this week pointed out how the global politics that have unfolded as a result of the US strategic foothold may be all about to change because of fracking.
Fracking is short for hydraulic fracturing. It is a method used to release natural gas trapped in rocks so that it might be tapped for energy use. The gas trapped in rocks is often referred to as "shale gas" by the USA.
To extract the gas from the shale, the energy companies drill directly down into the rock for a few thousand metres and then make a sharp turn and drill horizontally into the rock. Then they pump down water and a mix of chemicals which bust open the cracks in the rock, allowing the gas to flow.

In America, as in Australia, fracking is all the rage. Vast areas are being drilled and probed in the search for natural gas. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that shale gas will contribute more than half of the USA's total gas supply by 2030.
Der Spiegel said in addition to domestic use, the US may become an exporter of energy:
The future of the American energy supply was looking grim until recently. With its own resources waning, the United States was dependent on Arab oil sheiks and erratic dictators. Rising energy costs were hitting a vital nerve in the country's industrial sector.
But the situation has fundamentally changed since American drilling experts began using a method called "fracking," with which oil and gas molecules can be extracted from dense shale rock formations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the United States will replace Russia as the world's largest producer of natural gas in only two years. The Americans could also become the world's top petroleum producers by 2017.

This week, Marc Pervan, head of commodity research at the ANZ told The World Today that the US may also become an exporter of coal as demand at home dwindles.
"The US is likely to swing its energy mix much more towards a natural gas and renewable space and away from particularly the oil and coal markets. So there's going to be an excess supply of coal. US has a lot of it and it's either two options - one to shut down the supply or look to export if they can't consume domestically," he said.

And last year, the International Energy Agency said it expects the US to overtake Saudi Arabia in oil supply to the world by 2030.
If the US were to gain energy independence and in fact become a global exporter of energy, the geopolitical implications are immense.
As Der Spiegel said:
When the flows of energy change, the strategic and military calculations of the major powers do as well.
It is assumed the power considered to lie with energy rich countries such as Russia and the Middle Eastern states will pass to the USA, assisting in its renaissance as a global superpower. China and the US will duke it out for supremacy in the 21st Century.
These assumptions, however, are made with fossil fuels as the energy source behind the power.
While fossil fuels will continue to supply the world with energy for years to come, most prescient energy commentators are forecasting the gradual demise and replacement of these traditional fuels.

As the world increasingly grapples with the creeping effects of climate change, the move to renewables, nuclear and energy efficiency will only accelerate.

What then for these predictions of US global dominance with its fossil fuelled power?
The International Energy Agency says China, India and Brazil are leading the charge for renewable energy. Germany is globally recognised has having mapped out a path to a renewable future. Could it be that these countries will be the superpowers of the 21st Century as they bask in the endless energy provided by the wind, plants and the sun?

Will the powers of the past, the UK, USA and Russia, line up to curry favour with these tyro global players? Will the US spend another $4 trillion on a war to secure a supply of minerals to build solar panels or wind farms?

However the international politics play out into the future, one thing is certain: Australia, with our sunny skies and luxurious amount of space, is well placed to be energy independent and therefore politically impartial to the power struggles unfolding around the world.

Sara Phillips is the editor of the ABC's environmental portal.

Fareed Zakaria’s international bestseller The Post-American World pointed to the “rise of the rest”—the growth of countries like China, India, Brazil, and others—as the great story of our time, the story that will undoubtedly shape the future of global power. Since its publication, the trends he identified have proceeded faster than anyone could have anticipated. The 2008 financial crisis turned the world upside down, stalling the United States and other advanced economies. Meanwhile emerging markets have surged ahead, coupling their economic growth with pride, nationalism, and a determination to shape their own future.

In this new edition, Zakaria makes sense of this rapidly changing landscape. With his customary lucidity, insight, and imagination, he draws on lessons from the two great power shifts of the past 500 years—the rise of the Western world and the rise of the United States—to tell us what we can expect from the third shift, the “rise of the rest.” The great challenge for Britain was economic decline.

The challenge for America now is political decline, for as others have grown in importance, the central role of the United States, especially in the ascendant emerging markets, has already begun to shrink. As Zakaria eloquently argues, Washington needs to begin a serious transformation of its global strategy, moving from its traditional role of dominating hegemon to that of a more pragmatic, honest broker. It must seek to share power, create coalitions, build legitimacy, and define the global agenda—all formidable tasks.

None of this will be easy for the greatest power the world has ever known—the only power that for so long has really mattered. America stands at a crossroads: In a new global era where the United States no longer dominates the worldwide economy, orchestrates geopolitics, or overwhelms cultures, can the nation continue to thrive?

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Interesting forecast! Was Smart Grid known when he wrote this bestseller?
   

Yes, China, India, Brazil, and others (Germany).
The International Energy Agency says China, India and Brazil are leading the charge for renewable energy. Germany is globally recognised has having mapped out a path to a renewable future. Could it be that these countries will be the superpowers of the 21st Century as they bask in the endless energy provided by the wind, plants and the sun?
Will they undoubtedly shape the future of global power as Fareed Zakaria predicted?

Would be interesting to watch how things will eventuate.